It isn't easy to see into the future. Philip Tetlock, a psychologist and forecasting expert, has found that the best forecasters - the "superforecasters" - spend their time weighing up many sources of conflicting information. They think in probabilities, not certainties, and are always open to new evidence. Most people find this challenging. But if you're going to bet your house on a song competition, you'd better be up for the challenge.

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